Browsing by Author "Holmes, Jennifer S."
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Item Accounting for the Unaccountable: the Internal Auditor’s Role in Curbing National Corruption(2022-05-01T05:00:00.000Z) Mauriello, Joseph A; Elliott, Euel; Yuan, May; Holmes, Jennifer S.; Bunte, Jonas; Hefley, WilliamCorruption has been a scourge on organized society since the dawn of civilization. Social scientists, politicians, business leaders, think tanks, and concerned citizens have all taken turns attempting to solve the riddle of corruption. It perpetuates itself in multiple facets of daily life including politics, governmental affairs, business, economic development, and society and culture at large. It is also not limited by proximity constraints as corruption occurs across multiple geographic dimensions including local, regional, and national levels. Despite societal efforts to curb corruption, it continues to rear its ugly head with severe consequences. These consequences pose financial and societal hardships that underpin corruption risk. This has resulted in an increased demand for policy-based remediation efforts to curb corruption. Extant literature focuses primarily on institutional, socioeconomic, cultural, and development factors as determinants of corruption. However, not all countries that experience corruption do so consistently according to these determinants. To address this gap, I examine the effect of support for internal auditors across a sample of 180 countries. I hypothesize that countries with greater support for internal auditors are more likely to have greater control of corruption. My research utilizes a mixed methods approach encompassing a quantitative analysis with pooled time series cross sectional data and a qualitative case study. The qualitative case study approach employs survey data as well as professional and academic sources to compare the cases of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to ascertain determinants of corruption outcomes. Holding economic diversification conditions constant, I argue that support for internal auditors in the United Arab Emirates distinguishes its corruption outcome from that of its neighbor, Saudi Arabia. Specifically, I seek to address the following research question: Why is corruption pervasive in some countries but not others? My research contributes to the existing literature by introducing another determinant of corruption and assessing whether that driver conveys the variation in policy across the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.Item Comprop Computational Propaganda on Reddit.com (2013-2022)(May 2023) Lebo, Aaron; Brandt, Patrick T.; Krajewski, Andrew; D'Orazio, Vito; Holmes, Jennifer S.; Elliott, Euel W.This dissertation concerns the use of computational propaganda, or the use of bots, trolls, algorithms, disinformation, misinformation, and astroturfing campaigns on the social media website reddit.com. Simple heuristics and tools like Word2vec are used to identify ideological groups of users. Three separate case studies include the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2013, the 2016 presidential election in the United States, and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine by Russia. They establish the historic context of advances in communication technology and find evidence of ideological capture by pro-Russian and other users.Item Dynamics of Violence in El Salvador(2018-07-27) Pavon Tercero, Viveca Maria Leonela; Holmes, Jennifer S.Central America is the deadliest region in the world. The UNODC reports that the level of violence in this region is higher than in any single nation, including those at war. El Salvador’s 2015 homicide rate was listed as the highest for any country in nearly 20 years. This research seeks to better explain policies within El Salvador and how they continue to affect gang activities and crime. The research also seeks to fill in the gap on gang network dynamics and their level of power in affecting policies. I begin by exploring the policies implemented in the early 2000s and explaining how they have had a significant effect in gang development but also in political gain for acting parties. In an attempt to maintain control over a territory state leaders may chose policies that favor a public appearance of control. This study seeks to address if a country is willing to implement ’punitive populism’ in exchange for votes by analyzing the case of El Salvador. I argue that despite numerous failed attempts at controlling violence through punitive policies the country continues to enforce these actions and use them as platforms for future elections. Chapter three in this research uses social network analysis (SNA) to identify the temporal relationship between paired municipalities according to homicide. This method looks at the interconnectivity of homicide counts from one year and the next between municipalities, meaning that it is evaluating how two seemingly distinct regions can be responding to each other when it comes to homicide rates. The idea is to identify which municipalities are responding to crime in other municipalities around the country. This becomes a critical aspect of violence in the country because gangs can react to a specific event by attacking regions where rival gangs operate, not necessarily adjacent areas. In this study I conducted a single datum correlation coefficient (SDCC) to create this network connection. Using SNA we can better identify what regions of the country are of interest during a specific point in time and can help policy makers establish areas needing additional backing. This novel method introduces a new way of observing criminal behavior and helps identify hubs of criminal activity as well as vulnerable relationships among municipalities which could be indicative of gang retaliation areas. The 2012 Peace agreement in El Salvador between Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18 was an unprecedented truce between two of the deadliest rival gangs in Latin America. This agreement serves as an indication of cooperation with a greater purpose between groups that had been deemed unorganized. This raises concerns of what circumstances will facilitate cooperation between rival groups and what can be expected of this collaboration. Following the truce there was a genuine fear that gangs in El Salvador could become political actors by using Violent Lobbying and/or Violent Corruption. Even though the gangs have not proven to have political power there is still a fear that they can continue to influence politicians behind closed doors. This paper seeks to identify the tactics the gangs could use if they did attempt to lobby the state. These specific violent acts help us understand what pressures the government of El Salvador could have been facing that led to the truce being agreed upon. It also distinguishes what changes in violence the country experienced during and after the agreement. In order to identify these specific patterns I use event data analysis on newspaper stories from El Diario de Hoy to help identify is any coercive methods where used by las maras. These three chapters evaluate different aspects of violence in El Salvador originating from gang activity. I begin with a historical approach of policy implementation help introduce how the gangs developed and how they gained power to be able to influence violence beyond the reach of direct contiguity. I conclude by presenting past uses of violence with a direct purpose in order to understand the level of political power the gangs could obtain for future gain.Item Gender Disparities in Decision Making in Agriculture: A Case of Study of Small Producers in Peru(2021-03-08) Callenes, Mercedez; Holmes, Jennifer S.; Berry, Brian J.L.This study uses data from agricultural producers collected by the Group of Analysis for Development (GRADE) in one hundred thirty-two households from four departments, eleven provinces, and twenty-one districts of Peru. The survey used to collect this data includes questions from the Women in Agriculture Empowerment Index (WEAI) questionnaire designed by Alkire et al. (2013). By using Cronbach’s Alpha and Multilevel Poisson regressions, this research explores the relationship between socioeconomic households’ characteristics and participation in agriculture decision-making by gender. The study found that women’s contribution to farming decisions increases with older female heads of household, more minor females in the household, and female ownership of productive capital assets, especially owning titles to the agricultural property. This research attempts to cast light on the factors that need to be considered when designing policies to reduce poverty, ensure food security, and narrow the gender productive gap, which is prevalent in rural areas throughout Latin America.Item Medellín's Biblioteca España: Progress in Unlikely Places(Ubiquity Press Ltd, 2014-01-21) Holmes, Jennifer S.; Amin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, S.; Amin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, S.The Biblioteca España, designed by Giancarlo Mazzanti, is a library park built to serve two traditionally marginalized comunas (neighborhoods) of Medellín. As such, it is a prime example of a public policy intervention that focuses on social inclusion, the provision of services, and quality of life. In this paper, we ask whether improvements in state capacity and infrastructure at the local level can have a broad impact in poor and violent communities. The survey results reveal that citizens of comunas Popular and Santa Cruz perceive their situation to be improving at a faster rate than those of the city in general. The broader lesson for other countries and cities facing similar challenges is that leadership and reforms do have the potential to improve the quality of life, even in the most troubled areas.Item Opposition Support and the Experience of Violence Explain Colombian Peace Referendum Results(GIGA: German Institute of Global and Area Studies) Dávalos, E.; Morales, L. F.; Holmes, Jennifer S.; Dávalos, L. M.; 38877493 (Holmes, JS); Holmes, Jennifer S.What factors led to the surprise defeat of the Colombian peace referendum? Initial analyses suggested a link between support for peace and the experience of violence, but economic conditions and political support for incumbent parties also affect electoral outcomes. We use Bayesian hierarchical models to test links between referendum result and previous violence victimization, economic conditions, and support for Centro Democrático (the main party opposed to the peace agreement). There was less support for peace in the Andean region than in other regions, and departments with lower support had higher unemployment and growth in GDP. Support for the opposition was the dominant covariate of decreasing support for the peace accords, while previous violence victimization increased the proportion of votes for peace. In light of these results, regional variation in baseline support for the agreements – a complex variable governed by partisan engagement but also influenced by structural economic factors – will be critical during implementation of the newly revised accords. © 2018, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies. All rights reserved.Item Paramilitary Violence in Colombia: A Multilevel Negative Binomial Analysis(Routledge, 2019-06-14) Holmes, Jennifer S.; Mendizabal, Agustin Palao; De La Fuente, David Saucedo; Callenes, Mercedez; Cárdenas, Álvaro; 0000-0003-3117-0080 (Palao Mendizabal, A); Holmes, Jennifer S.; Mendizabal, Agustin Palao; De La Fuente, David Saucedo; Callenes, Mercedez; Cárdenas, ÁlvaroAlthough Colombia is well known for its persistent leftist guerrilla conflict, the country also suffers from paramilitary violence. This study examines the potential factors related to persistent paramilitary violence in the form of human rights violations. How has paramilitary activity, and its causes, changed over time? Why does it persist in some areas after Uribe’s demobilization process but not in others? We use multilevel modeling to explore the determinants of paramilitary human rights violations. A varied range of aspects potentially associated with the paramilitary presence at the municipal level for the period 2002–2015, such as state presence, resources, greed, grievances and conflict are analyzed. The study uses information about paramilitary human rights violations from the Centro de Investigación y Educación Popular (CINEP). Results suggest that the demobilization process reduced the initial paramilitary motivation to fight against leftist guerrilla. However, other factors such as coca cultivation or ranching remained significantly related to the paramilitary activity. The analysis at the municipal level provides clear warnings for continued violence cycles threatening any undergoing or future peace processes or demobilizations and calls for a more nuanced concept of state capacity to understand paramilitary violence. © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.Item The Arc of Conflict: Three Articles on the Life of a Conflict(2018-05) Torno, Randell Rex; Holmes, Jennifer S.Conflicts, because they are conducted by living beings, are in some sense living beings as well. Like other living beings they have life stages – they are born, they grow and strengthen, they mature, and in most cases, eventually die. Conflicts also exhibit significant “life events” over their lifespans from painful (and often violent) births, to intractable stalemates, to eventually, resolution and post-conflict rebuilding. Conflicts are also organic and don’t always resolve themselves in accordance with any easily quantifiable rules. Because conflicts don’t seem to follow precise rules, it becomes imperative for both policy makers and conflict theorists to develop both broad and deep understanding of the “lives” of conflicts. This dissertation is an attempt to do precisely that. This dissertation develops contributions to understanding conflict “life events”– from armed secession attempts and government responses, to phases of seemingly endless fighting, to issues faced by peacekeeping organizations after the fighting ends. Each article explores a specific set of circumstances that could occur at particular stages of a conflict under study, but when taken together, add to a foundation of knowledge that could be used to guide both policy makers with practical application and academic theorists for further study. The Three Articles Breaking Up Is Hard To Do: A Case Study Of Sudan And The Secession Of South Sudan examines secessionist activities and the decision to fight, negotiate, or settle multiple separatist movements active in Sudan since 1956. This article explores the range of government responses to those secession attempts using a single country as a case study. Various groups have attempted secession through armed conflict in Sudan with varying results (one successful secession, at least one active secession conflict, and several defeated secessions). Zombie Wars: Conflicts That Never Seem To Die applies a model originally developed to analyze personal conflicts to gain understanding into the psychology of intractable conflicts. The MACBE (motivation – affectation – cognition – behavior – environment) model provides a “system of systems” view into why parties in dispute often fail to respond in ways that other theorists (rationalists, economists, power theorists) would predict. Strangers In A Strange Land: Organizational Learning During The United Nations Interim Security Force In Abyei (Unisfa) Mission evaluates the impact of a United Nations Peacekeeping unified operational command on the application of organizational learning over the course of a peacekeeping operation.Item Three Essays on Terrorism Impact on Development: a Case Study of Al-Shabaab Terrorist Spillover From Somalia to Kenya and Its Impact on Kenya’s Developmental Vision 2030(May 2023) Erjok, Erjok Ayoor Apech 1982-; Gambol Gavigan, Brenda; Holmes, Jennifer S.; Cordell, Rebecca; D'Orazio, Vito; Miller, Banks P.In this three essays dissertation, I examine the impact of Al-Shabaab terrorism on Kenya’s overall development, dubbed Vision 2030. Launched in 2008, the Vision was anchored on economic growth, social improvement, and political equality to “transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income country by 2030,” however, with a rise in Al-Shabaab terrorism in Kenya, Vision’s success is at risk. These essays include regression analysis results and graphical representations to assess the terrorist group's impact on Kenya’s Vision 2030. Chapter 1 provides a general introduction to the dissertation. Chapter 2 evaluates Al-Shabaab's impact on Kenya's economy from 1995–2019. This chapter compares the group’s impact on Kenya to Ethiopia, which experienced minimal terrorism. The graphical results show the presence of Al-Shabaab terrorism in Kenya is associated with a reduction in international tourism arrivals and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflow compared to Ethiopia. Graphs show a decline in tourist arrivals and the amount of FDI inflow to Kenya compared to Ethiopia, particularly over the time terrorism incidence rose (2011 – 2016). For example, figures 16A and 16B show Kenya’s international tourism and FDI declined by 26% and 67.63%, respectively, on average, compared to Ethiopia, which saw a 66.54% and 559.05% (figure 17A & 17B) increase in international tourism arrivals and amount of FDI inflow respectively over the same timeline. In Chapter 3, I examine the Al-Shabaab terrorist group’s impact on social development, measured by education within Kenya. Education is proxies by average years of schooling and assessed at a subnational (provincial) level. The regression results show the presence of Al- Shabaab terrorism in Kenya is associated with lower mean years of education. The regression outputs indicate that the single terrorism indicator (incidence) explained 21% of the variance and that the model significantly predicts social development. Terrorism incidence contributes considerably to the model (B = -0.1843694, p = 0.00000001049), while the number killed, wounded, and damaged property is insignificant. Based on these results, a 1-unit increase in terrorist incidence reduces school attendance by more than two months or 66 days on average. In Chapter 4, I investigate the political impact of Al-Shabaab terrorism on Kenya compared to Tanzania at the country level and the first administrative (province) level within Kenya. The political impact of terrorism is operationalized through police and court level of corruption and application of the rule of law, using the AFRO Barometer surveys from 2002–2018. The graphical results show a positive association between Al-Shabaab terrorism presence, level of corruption, and unequal application of the rule of law in Kenya compared to Tanzania, especially during the Al-Shabaab terrorism peak. The increase in police and court corruption levels, and the rise in unequal application of the rule of law, is worse in Kenya compared to Tanzania. Furthermore, within Kenya, the level of official government corruption at terrorism onset is worse in the Northeastern and Coast provinces compared to provinces without Al-Shabaab.