'Stereotyping' the American Electorate: An Examination of what Drives Turnout in the Electoral Periphery
Parker, Misty Dawn
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What motivates an individual to vote in one election but abstain in another? With its division of the electorate into core components (consistent voters or non-voters) and the periphery (inconsistent voters), Campbells core and periphery model provides a useful theory to investigate this question. Methodologically, Campbells approach not only relies upon self-reporting, but its operationalization of the electorate does not reflect the theory of the concepts being measured. This dissertation establishes a methodology to disaggregate the core and peripheral components of the electorate, enhancing the ensuing measurement schemes construct validity. Using a stereotype regression, a rarely-used class of logistic regression models designed to measure distances between ordered categories of a dependent variable, I validate this novel approach. This disaggregation scheme is then used to profile the core and peripheral electorates and investigate voting behavior of the dynamic periphery.