Taiwan and the Recognition Decisions of Developing States
Munday, Matthew William
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This dissertation explores the following question: why do certain developing states choose to recognize Taiwan while others do not? Developing states, despite being generally regarded as less influential in global affairs, have been the subject of an intense diplomatic competition between China and Taiwan. This research explores why states choose to engage with Taiwan as well as why some states pursue informal relations rather than formal relations. A causal theory is developed to account for how coalitions between Finance, Industry, and Labor influence the recognition decisions of developing states. I hypothesize that countries where Finance is strongly represented are more likely to recognize Taiwan while countries where Industry is strongly represented are less likely to recognize Taiwan. I find quantitative and qualitative evidence to support the theory that, in the context of informal recognition, coalitions between economic interest groups influence the likelihood that a developing country will recognize Taiwan.