School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences
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The School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences includes programs in Criminology, Economics, GeoSpatial Science, Public Policy and Political Economy, Political Science, Public Affairs, and Sociology.
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Item A Business That Can't Lose: Investing in Attacks against the Colombian Power Grid(Elsevier B.V., 2019-05-31) Barreto, C.; Cardenas, A. A.; Holmes, Jennifer; Palao, Augustin; Restrepo, J. C.; Holmes, Jennifer; Palao, AugustinIn 2005 a company in charge of repairing electric transmission towers made a deal with guerrilla militants to demolish the towers. This company thrived, because the attacks were attributed to guerrilla groups, who commit these attacks often. However, the number of attacks increased significantly, raising alarms and leading to the discovery of the plot. We model this situation as a game between contractors and the power transmission company, and show how misaligned incentives enabled contractors to profit by colluding with guerrilla groups. We also analyze how to modify the contractual policies reducing the incentives to collude with guerrillas. In particular, the transmission company can prevent attacks by creating competition and exploiting market inefficiencies. ©2019 Elsevier B.V.Item A Comparative Study of the China Factor in Taiwan and Hong Kong Elections(Palgrave Macmillan, 2018-05-20) Ho, Karl; Wong, Stan Hok-wui; Clarke, Harold D.; Lee, Kuan-Chen; Lee, WC; Ho, Karl; Clarke, Harold D.This chapter probes the economic dimension of the China factor in Taiwan and Hong Kong politics. We discuss how economic integration efforts affect elections and party competitions in smaller states neighboring China. Research on globalization suggests that freer international trade redistributes wealth among big and small states and reshapes local or regional political cleavages. Growing inequalities among and within these states could consequently reinforce localist identities and pro-independence movements. In the case of China, economic integration manifested in recent free trade treaties with Taiwan and Hong Kong coincides with the rise of localism and state-wide protests against further integration. In this study, we examine the micro-level connections between economic integration and political disintegration using new survey data about public perceptions of China in these societies. ©2018 Springer Nature Switzerland AGItem A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Effectiveness of Mosquito Nets for Malaria Control: The Value of Long-Lasting Insecticide Nets(MDPI) Yang, Gi-geun; Kim, Dohyeong; Anh Pham; Paul, Christopher John; 0000-0002-1428-1451 (Kim, D); Kim, DohyeongLong-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) have been widely used as an effective alternative to conventional insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) for over a decade. Due to the growing number of field trials and interventions reporting the effectiveness of LLINs in controlling malaria, there is a need to systematically review the literature on LLINs and ITNs to examine the relative effectiveness and characteristics of both insecticide nettings. A systematic review of over 2000 scholarly articles published since the year 2000 was conducted. The odds ratios (ORs) of insecticidal net effectiveness in reducing malaria were recorded. The final dataset included 26 articles for meta- regression analysis, with a sample size of 154 subgroup observations. While there is substantial heterogeneity in study characteristics and effect size, we found that the overall OR for reducing malaria by LLIN use was 0.44 (95% CI = 0.41-0.48, p < 0.01) indicating a risk reduction of 56%, while ITNs were slightly less effective with an OR of 0.59 (95% CI = 0.57-0.61, p < 0.01). A meta-regression model confirms that LLINs are significantly more effective than ITNs in the prevention of malaria, when controlling for other covariates. For both types of nets, protective efficacy was greater in high transmission areas when nets were used for an extended period. However, cross-sectional studies may overestimate the effect of the nets. The results surprisingly suggest that nets are less effective in protecting children under the age of five, which may be due to differences in child behavior or inadequate coverage. Compared to a previous meta-analysis, insecticide-treated nets appear to have improved their efficacy despite the risks of insecticide resistance. These findings have practical implications for policymakers seeking effective malaria control strategies.Item A Model of Monetary Policy Shocks for Financial Crises and Normal Conditions(Wiley, 2018-07-26) Keating, John W.; Kelly, Logan J.; Smith, A. Lee; Valcarcel, Victor J.; 0000-0002-6642-3239 (Valcarcel, VJ); 232523664 (Valcarcel, VJ); Valcarcel, Victor J.Deteriorating economic conditions in late 2008 led the Federal Reserve to lower the target federal funds rate to near zero, inject liquidity through novel facilities, and engage in large-scale asset purchases. The combination of conventional and unconventional policy measures prevents using the effective federal funds rate to assess the effects of monetary policy beyond 2008. We employ a broad monetary aggregate to elicit the effects of monetary policy shocks both before and after 2008. Our estimates align well with major changes in the Fed's asset purchase programs and yield responses that are free from price, output, and liquidity puzzles that plague other approaches.Item A Spatial-Filtering Zero-Inflated Approach to the Estimation of the Gravity Model of Trade(MDPI) Metulini, Rodolfo; Patuelli, Roberto; Griffith, Daniel A.; 0000-0001-5125-6450 (Griffith, DA); 14855602 (Griffith, DA); Griffith, Daniel A.Nonlinear estimation of the gravity model with Poisson-type regression methods has become popular for modelling international trade flows, because it permits a better accounting for zero flows and extreme values in the distribution tail. Nevertheless, as trade flows are not independent from each other due to spatial and network autocorrelation, these methods may lead to biased parameter estimates. To overcome this problem, eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) variants of the Poisson/negative binomial specifications have been proposed in the literature on gravity modelling of trade. However, no specific treatment has been developed for cases in which many zero flows are present. This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, by employing a stepwise selection criterion for spatial filters that is based on robust (sandwich) p-values and does not require likelihood-based indicators. In this respect, we develop an ad hoc backward stepwise function in R. Second, using this function, we select a reduced set of spatial filters that properly accounts for importer-side and exporter-side specific spatial effects, as well as network effects, both at the count and the logit processes of zero-inflated methods. Applying this estimation strategy to a cross-section of bilateral trade flows between a set of 64 countries for the year 2000, we find that our specification outperforms the benchmark models in terms of model fitting, both considering the AIC and in predicting zero (and small) flows.Item Ambassador Dennis Ross(2008-12-10T22:52:01Z)Item Barriers and Incentives for Sustainable Urban Development: An Analysis of the Adoption of LEED-ND Projects(Academic Press, 2019-05-22) Cease, Brett; Kim, HyoungAh; Kim, Dohyeong; Ko, Y.; Cappel, C.; 0000-0002-1428-1451 (Kim, D); Cease, Brett; Kim, HyoungAh; Kim, DohyeongThe adoption rate for Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design – Neighborhood Development (LEED-ND) projects has varied considerably across the United States. Local governments and developers face variation in the incentives and barriers while implementing LEED-ND projects across four key dimensions – economic, policy, public awareness, and organizational. This paper investigated the drivers of variation using a mixed-methods approach including a two-stage Heckman model, a survey of Texas subdivision developers and interviews with local planning officials. Results indicate that initial public funding may lead to more LEED-ND projects being completed, but with a diminishing return as these projects become established within the region. Support for local programs including tax abatement, public-private partnerships, and other incentives were also demonstrated to help facilitate LEED-ND project adoption. Overall this paper underscored the important role, especially early on, the public sector and local governments play in initiating local LEED-ND projects to inform and motivate the land development industry. © 2019 Elsevier LtdItem Brazil, BITs and FDI: A Synthetic Control Approach(Brill Academic Publishers, 2019-02-11) Cavallo, Paulo; Cavallo, PauloThe explosion in bilateral investment treaties (BITs) signed between countries in the 1990s and the concurrent surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows draw substantial attention in the literature. This article tackles the controversial relationship between BITs and FDI inflows using an innovative technique: the synthetic control method. Brazil is a peculiar case because it is one of the few cases where FDI inflows had a significant surge even in the complete absence of BITs. Did foreign investors really not need BITs in order to invest in Brazil? I find evidence that, although Brazil received substantial amounts of FDI even in the absence of BITs, had they enacted any BIT, the inflow in the period would have been greater. The method builds a synthetic Brazil from a pool of other countries providing this way a better comparative analysis. The findings are robust to both in-space and in-time placebo experiments.Item Burden of Salmonellosis, Campylobacteriosis and Listeriosis: A Time Series Analysis, Belgium, 2012 to 2020(European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control, 2018-08-20) de Noordhout, C. Maertens; Devleesschauwer, B.; Haagsma, J. A.; Havelaar, A. H.; Bertrand, S.; Vandenberg, O.; Quoilin, S.; Brandt, Patrick T.; Speybroeck, N.; Brandt, Patrick T.Salmonellosis, campylobacteriosis and listeriosis are food-borne diseases. We estimated and forecasted the number of cases of these three diseases in Belgium from 2012 to 2020, and calculated the corresponding number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The salmonellosis time series was fitted with a Bai and Perron two-breakpoint model, while a dynamic linear model was used for campylobacteriosis and a Poisson autoregressive model for listeriosis. The average monthly number of cases of salmonellosis was 264 (standard deviation (SD): 86) in 2012 and predicted to be 212 (SD: 87) in 2020; campylobacteriosis case numbers were 633 (SD: 81) and 1,081 (SD: 311); listeriosis case numbers were 5 (SD: 2) in 2012 and 6 (SD: 3) in 2014. After applying correction factors, the estimated DALYs for salmonellosis were 102 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 8-376) in 2012 and predicted to be 82 (95% UI: 6-310) in 2020; campylobacteriosis DALYs were 1,019 (95% UI: 137-3,181) and 1,736 (95% UI: 178-5,874); listeriosis DALYs were 208 (95% UI: 192226) in 2012 and 252 (95% UI: 200-307) in 2014. New actions are needed to reduce the risk of food-borne infection with Campylobacter spp. because campylobacteriosis incidence may almost double through 2020.Item Causal Inference from Pivotal Politics Theories(University of Chicago Press) Clarke, A. J.; Gray, Thomas R.; Lowande, K.; Gray, Thomas R.We review attempts to evaluate Pivotal Politics and related theories in light of the social sciences’ movement toward causal empiricism. To accommodate limitations of available data, most existing empirical approaches require additional assumptions about key variables. Moreover, it is difficult to find sources of exogenous variation in causal factors of interest. Although causal empiricism and pivotal politics theories share a focus on counterfactual comparisons, we argue that many design-based strategies for inference are ill suited to directly testing the theory’s predictions. We conclude by discussing opportunities to apply the contemporary causal inference “toolkit” to evaluate the theories’ central predictions, highlighting both the barriers to application as well as potential avenues for future use.Item Changing the Relationship between Impulsivity and Antisocial Behavior: The Impact of a School Engagement Program(Sage Publications Inc.) Cardwell, S. M.; Mazerolle, L.; Bennett, S.; Piquero, Alex R.; 2088022 (Piquero, AR); Piquero, Alex R.This study examines the extent to which a third-party policing experiment designed to prevent truancy in disadvantaged adolescents is able to weaken the effect of impulsivity on self-reported antisocial behavior over time. Data are used from the Ability School Engagement Program (ASEP), a randomized controlled trial of 102 high truant youth from Brisbane, Australia who were followed for 2 years postrandomization. We find that ASEP weakened the effect of impulsivity on the diversity of self-reported antisocial behavior throughout the study for those in the experiment. This study provides evidence that an intervention that was designed to prevent truancy has the additional benefit of hindering the relationship between impulsivity and self-reported antisocial behavior variety.Item Characteristics of Adults Involved in Alcohol-Related Intimate Partner Violence: Results from a Nationally Representative Sample(Biomed Central Ltd, 2014-05-17) Gonzalez, Jennifer M. Reingle; Connell, Nadine M.; Businelle, Michael S.; Jennings, Wesley G.; Chartier, Karen G.; 2009034845 (Connell, NM); Connell, Nadine M.Background: More than 12 million women and men are victims of partner violence each year. Although the health outcomes of partner violence have been well documented, we know very little about specific event-level characteristics that may provide implications for prevention and intervention of partner violence situations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate substance abuse and dependence as risk factors for event-level alcohol-related intimate partner violence (IPV). Methods: Data were derived from Wave II of the National Epidemiological Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (2004-2005). Eligible participants (N = 2,255) reported IPV the year before the survey. Negative binomial and ordinal regression methods were used to assess risk factors for alcohol use during IPV. Results: Respondent PTSD was the only mental health diagnosis related to alcohol use during IPV (OR = 1.45). Marijuana use was related to respondents' use of alcohol during IPV (OR = 2.68). Respondents' meeting the criteria for alcohol abuse/dependence was strongly associated with respondent drinking (OR = 10.74) and partner drinking (OR = 2.89) during IPV. Conclusion: Results indicate that PTSD, marijuana use disorders, alcohol abuse and dependence are associated with more frequent alcohol use during IPV. In addition, it is important to consider that the patient who presents in emergency settings (e.g., hospitals or urgent care facilities) may not be immediately identifiable as the victim or the perpetrator of partner violence. Therefore, screening and intervention programs should probe to further assess the event-level characteristics of partner violence situations to ensure the correct service referrals are made to prevent partner violence.Item Childhood Reports of Food Neglect and Impulse Control Problems and Violence in Adulthood(MDPI AG, 2018-06-01) Vaughn, M. G.; Salas-Wright, C. P.; Naeger, S.; Huang, J.; Piquero, Alex R.; 0000 0001 2098 3962 (Piquero, AR); 2088022 (Piquero, AR); Piquero, Alex R.Food insecurity and hunger during childhood are associated with an array of developmental problems in multiple domains, including impulse control problems and violence. Unfortunately, extant research is based primarily on small convenience samples and an epidemiological assessment of the hunger-violence link is lacking. The current study employed data from Wave 1 (2001-2002) andWave 2 (2004-2005) of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). The NESARC is a nationally representative sample of non-institutionalized U.S. residents aged 18 years and older. Participants who experienced frequent hunger during childhood had significantly greater impulsivity, worse self-control, and greater involvement in several forms of interpersonal violence. These effects were stronger among whites, Hispanics, and males. The findings support general theoretical models implicating impulse control problems as a key correlate of crime and violence and add another facet to the importance of ameliorating food neglect in the United States. © 2016 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.Item Combining Water Fraction and DEM-Based Methods to Create a Coastal Flood Map: A Case Study of Hurricane Harvey(MDPI AG, 2019-05-18) Li, Xiaoxuan; Cummings, Anthony R.; Alruzuq, A. R.; Matyas, C. J.; Amanambu, A. C.; Li, Xiaoxuan; Cummings, Anthony R.Tropical cyclones are incredibly destructive and deadly, inflicting immense losses to coastal properties and infrastructure. Hurricane-induced coastal floods are often the biggest threat to life and the coastal environment. A quick and accurate estimation of coastal flood extent is urgently required for disaster rescue and emergency response. In this study, a combined Digital Elevation Model (DEM) based water fraction (DWF) method was implemented to simulate coastal floods during Hurricane Harvey on the South Texas coast. Water fraction values were calculated to create a 15 km flood map from multiple channels of the Advanced Technology Microwave Sound dataset. Based on hydrological inundation mechanism and topographic information, the coarse-resolution flood map derived from water fraction values was then downscaled to a high spatial resolution of 10 m. To evaluate the DWF result, Storm Surge Hindcast product and flood-reported high-water-mark observations were used. The results indicated a high overlapping area between the DWF map and buffered flood-reported high-water-marks (HWMs), with a percentage of more than 85%. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between the DWF map and CERA SSH product was 0.91, which demonstrates a strong linear relationship between these two maps. The DWF model has a promising capacity to create high-resolution flood maps over large areas that can aid in emergency response. The result generated here can also be useful for flood risk management, especially through risk communication. © 2019 by the authors.Item Comparing Logging and Subsistence Values of Plants Across an Indigenous Peoples’ Influenced Landscape(Elsevier B.V.) Shah, Muna; Cummings, Anthony R.; Shah, Muna; Cummings, Anthony R.The ecosystem services derived from tropical plants sustain local societies and make significant contributions to the global economy. Often many types of ecosystem services are derived from a single plant species, introducing the potential for tensions between forest users. Despite the potential for forest users having different approaches to how a plant is used, little has been done to understand how a plant species’ sustainability may be impacted by opposing views on their utility. In this paper, the inherent properties of plants were used to propose a conceptual approach for comparing the values of plant species from the perspectives of commercial loggers and indigenous peoples. Using the provisioning ecosystem services associated with a sample of plants from the Rupununi, Southern Guyana, commercial logging and subsistence use indices were developed to compare how plant species may be perceived by the two opposing views of tropical forest management. The analysis suggested that for more than 84% of plants the subsistence value indices were greater than the logging indices. This study suggested that by examining opposing approaches to forest management, and adopting indices to document how different users approach plants, forest managers can begin to answer questions on where in space, and for which species, conservation and management efforts should be pursued. The methods proposed in this paper can be used by indigenous peoples and their allies to make spatial optimization decisions on their use of forest resources for conservation and payment for ecosystem services initiatives such as REDD+.Item Confronting the Costs of Its past Success: Revisiting Taiwan's Post-Authoritarian Political and Economic Development(Wiley Periodicals) Clark, C.; Tan, A. C.; Ho, Karl; 2546153775047461550002 (Ho, K); Ho, KarlThe evolution of Taiwan's political economy seems paradoxical. From the 1960s to 1980s, Taiwan went through economic transformations that have been called an “economic miracle.” This was followed by a successful democratic transition from the late 1980s to mid-1990s that might be considered a “political miracle.” In the early 1990s, Taiwan could be regarded as a success story and a model for developing nations. Yet, Taiwan was soon to “enter troubled waters” marked by growing conflict and threat from China (PRC), fears about the “hollowing out” of its previously vaunted economy, and vicious polarization and gridlock in its domestic politics. We argue that many of the challenges facing Taiwan derive from unanticipated and unintended costs of its previous successes. In particular, what worked to promote successful economic and political development at one point later became counterproductive in the changed circumstances created by the country's rapid developmental trajectory. Our basic research questions, hence, are whether the challenges currently facing Taiwan's political economy can be explained by the country's past pattern of development and, if so, whether these linkages appear to be connected to success or failures in Taiwan's history. © 2018 Policy Studies OrganizationItem Congress and the Political Economy of Daylight Saving Time, 1918–1985(Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2019-05-06) Gray, Thomas R.; Jenkins, J. A.; Gray, Thomas R.Objective: Daylight Saving Time (DST) is a government policy regulating the timing of daylight during the summer months. While DST's existence is taken for granted in modern American life, the adoption and expansion of the policy was heavily debated, with strong opposition that persists to the present day—a full century after its inception as a World War I energy-efficiency program. After reviewing the history of DST, we analyze the political economy of congressional vote choice on DST policy. Method: We analyze votes of members of Congress on all DST-specific roll calls between 1918 and 1985, assessing whether members voted to expand or reduce DST. Results: We find that ideology, party, geographic location, and the portion of a constituency made up by farmers all strongly predict member support for adopting and expanding DST—and that each of these effects is durable over time. Digging deeper, we find significant evidence for local representation on DST votes, as constituency-specific factors are more strongly associated with congressional vote choice than partisanship or general ideological preferences. Conclusion: Overall, our results provide an original empirical assessment of the factors that drove the adoption and revision of a contentious and significant government policy that endures today. © 2019 by the Southwestern Social Science AssociationItem Creating Optimal Patrol Areas Using the P-Median Model(Emerald Publishing Ltd.) Wheeler, Andrew P.; 0000-0003-2255-1316 (Wheeler, AP); Wheeler, Andrew P.Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of the p-median model to construct optimal patrol areas. This can improve both time spent traveling to calls, as well as equalize call load between patrol areas. Design/methodology/approach: The paper provides an introduction to the use of integer linear programs to create optimal patrol areas, as many analysts and researchers in the author’s field will not be familiar with such models. The analysis then introduces a set of linear constraints to the p-median problem that are applicable to police agencies, such as constraining call loads to be equal and making patrol areas geographically contiguous. Findings: The analysis illustrates the technique on simplified simulated examples. The analysis then demonstrates the utility of the technique by showing how patrol areas in Carrollton, TX can be made both more efficient and equalize the call loads given the same number of patrol beats as currently in place. Originality/value: Unlike prior applications of creating patrol areas, this paper introduces linear constraints into the p-median problem, making it much easier to solve than programs that have non-linear or multiple objective functions. Supplementary code using open source software is also provided, allowing other analysts or researchers to apply the model to their own data. © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited.Item Crime in College Predicts Violent Crime in the National Football League(Taylor and Francis Inc.) Leal, W.; Piquero, Alex R.; Piquero, Nicole L.; Gertz, M.; 2088022 (Piquero, AR); 73323853 (Piquero, NL); Piquero, Alex R.; Piquero, Nicole L.The relationship between past and future crime is one of the most robust findings within criminology. Yet, there have been few attempts to examine whether this linkage holds in specific employment arenas. In this study, we consider the relationship between past and future crime within the context of the National Football League (NFL). Specifically, we assess whether there is a relationship between pre-NFL arrests and arrests while playing in the NFL. Using data on NFL arrestees coupled with an internet-based search of arrests prior to their joining the NFL, we find that pre-NFL arrests are positive and significantly related to violent (but not total or non-violent) arrests. Also, this pattern of findings was observed for non-white NFL players, but not white players. Limitations, future research directions, and policy implications are highlighted.Item Defining Neighborhood Boundaries in Studies of Spatial Dependence in Child Behavior Problems(2013-05-03) Caughy, Margaret O'Brien; Leonard, Tammy; Beron, Kurt J.; Murdoch, James C.; Murdoch, James C.Background: The purpose of this study was to extend the analysis of neighborhood effects on child behavioral outcomes in two ways: (1) by examining the geographic extent of the relationship between child behavior and neighborhood physical conditions independent of standard administrative boundaries such as census tracts or block groups and (2) by examining the relationship and geographic extent of geographic peers' behavior and individual child behavior. Methods: The study neighborhood was a low income, ethnic minority neighborhood of approximately 20,000 residents in a large city in the southwestern United States. Observational data were collected for 11,552 parcels and 1,778 face blocks in the neighborhood over a five week period. Data on child behavior problems were collected from the parents of 261 school-age children (81% African American, 14% Latino) living in the neighborhood. Spatial analysis methods were used to examine the spatial dependence of child behavior problems in relation to physical conditions in the neighborhood for areas surrounding the child's home ranging from a radius of 50 meters to a radius of 1000 meters. Likewise, the spatial dependence of child behavior problems in relation to the behavior problems of neighborhood peers was examined for areas ranging from a radius 255 meters to a radius of 600 meters around the child's home. Finally, we examined the joint influence of neighborhood physical conditions and geographic peers. Results: Poor conditions of the physical environment of the neighborhood were related to more behavioral problems, and the geographic extent of the physical environment that mattered was an area with a radius between 400 and 800 meters surrounding the child's home. In addition, the average level of behavior problems of neighborhood peers within 255 meters of the child's home was also positively associated with child behavior problems. Furthermore, these effects were independent of one another. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that using flexible geographies in the study of neighborhood effects can provide important insights into spatial influences on health outcomes. With regards to child behavioral outcomes, specifically, these findings support the importance of addressing the physical and social environment when planning community-level interventions to reduce child behavior problems.