Holmes, Jennifer S.
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/10735.1/4431
Jennifer Holmes serves as a Professor of Political Economy and Political Science as well as the Program Head for Public Policy and Political Economy. in 2019 she was appointed Dean of the School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences. Her research interests are focused on political violence, terrorism, and political development with an emphasis on Latin America and Southern Europe.
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Item Paramilitary Violence in Colombia: A Multilevel Negative Binomial Analysis(Routledge, 2019-06-14) Holmes, Jennifer S.; Mendizabal, Agustin Palao; De La Fuente, David Saucedo; Callenes, Mercedez; Cárdenas, Álvaro; 0000-0003-3117-0080 (Palao Mendizabal, A); Holmes, Jennifer S.; Mendizabal, Agustin Palao; De La Fuente, David Saucedo; Callenes, Mercedez; Cárdenas, ÁlvaroAlthough Colombia is well known for its persistent leftist guerrilla conflict, the country also suffers from paramilitary violence. This study examines the potential factors related to persistent paramilitary violence in the form of human rights violations. How has paramilitary activity, and its causes, changed over time? Why does it persist in some areas after Uribe’s demobilization process but not in others? We use multilevel modeling to explore the determinants of paramilitary human rights violations. A varied range of aspects potentially associated with the paramilitary presence at the municipal level for the period 2002–2015, such as state presence, resources, greed, grievances and conflict are analyzed. The study uses information about paramilitary human rights violations from the Centro de Investigación y Educación Popular (CINEP). Results suggest that the demobilization process reduced the initial paramilitary motivation to fight against leftist guerrilla. However, other factors such as coca cultivation or ranching remained significantly related to the paramilitary activity. The analysis at the municipal level provides clear warnings for continued violence cycles threatening any undergoing or future peace processes or demobilizations and calls for a more nuanced concept of state capacity to understand paramilitary violence. © 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.Item A Business That Can't Lose: Investing in Attacks against the Colombian Power Grid(Elsevier B.V., 2019-05-31) Barreto, C.; Cardenas, A. A.; Holmes, Jennifer; Palao, Augustin; Restrepo, J. C.; Holmes, Jennifer; Palao, AugustinIn 2005 a company in charge of repairing electric transmission towers made a deal with guerrilla militants to demolish the towers. This company thrived, because the attacks were attributed to guerrilla groups, who commit these attacks often. However, the number of attacks increased significantly, raising alarms and leading to the discovery of the plot. We model this situation as a game between contractors and the power transmission company, and show how misaligned incentives enabled contractors to profit by colluding with guerrilla groups. We also analyze how to modify the contractual policies reducing the incentives to collude with guerrillas. In particular, the transmission company can prevent attacks by creating competition and exploiting market inefficiencies. ©2019 Elsevier B.V.Item Opposition Support and the Experience of Violence Explain Colombian Peace Referendum Results(GIGA: German Institute of Global and Area Studies) Dávalos, E.; Morales, L. F.; Holmes, Jennifer S.; Dávalos, L. M.; 38877493 (Holmes, JS); Holmes, Jennifer S.What factors led to the surprise defeat of the Colombian peace referendum? Initial analyses suggested a link between support for peace and the experience of violence, but economic conditions and political support for incumbent parties also affect electoral outcomes. We use Bayesian hierarchical models to test links between referendum result and previous violence victimization, economic conditions, and support for Centro Democrático (the main party opposed to the peace agreement). There was less support for peace in the Andean region than in other regions, and departments with lower support had higher unemployment and growth in GDP. Support for the opposition was the dominant covariate of decreasing support for the peace accords, while previous violence victimization increased the proportion of votes for peace. In light of these results, regional variation in baseline support for the agreements – a complex variable governed by partisan engagement but also influenced by structural economic factors – will be critical during implementation of the newly revised accords. © 2018, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies. All rights reserved.Item Medellín's Biblioteca España: Progress in Unlikely Places(Ubiquity Press Ltd, 2014-01-21) Holmes, Jennifer S.; Amin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, S.; Amin Gutiérrez de Piñeres, S.The Biblioteca España, designed by Giancarlo Mazzanti, is a library park built to serve two traditionally marginalized comunas (neighborhoods) of Medellín. As such, it is a prime example of a public policy intervention that focuses on social inclusion, the provision of services, and quality of life. In this paper, we ask whether improvements in state capacity and infrastructure at the local level can have a broad impact in poor and violent communities. The survey results reveal that citizens of comunas Popular and Santa Cruz perceive their situation to be improving at a faster rate than those of the city in general. The broader lesson for other countries and cities facing similar challenges is that leadership and reforms do have the potential to improve the quality of life, even in the most troubled areas.